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How to count outs is one of the first things people learn when they pick up a poker book or are taught the game by a friend. When played properly poker is a game of making good decisions based on the odds you are being offered. Whether or not a decision is a good one often comes down to your equity in the hand or to simplify a little, your chance of winning at showdown.
What are Outs?
In the simplest possible terms, an out is a card that may come on a future street that is very likely to give you the winning hand. For example if you are all-in pre-flop against an opponent and you hold KhKs against his AsAd then your primary outs are the two remaining Kings in the deck, which will give you a set.
Another example would be if you are facing a bet on all-in bet on the flop with 7d8d on a board of 9sTsAh. You can be reasonably confident that you can be reasonably confident that any Jack or 6 will give you the winning hand. There are four of each card still in the deck, so you have a total of 8 outs in this situation, unless of course your opponent has KQ in which case the Jack would give him a higher straight.
How to Count Outs
There are some common scenarios in which you should be able to recall off the top of your head how many outs you have. In the example where we held KK above it’s fairly obvious that there are two Kings left in the deck and so we have two outs, but what about drawing hands. Here is a list of typical drawing hands and how many outs they have:
Flush Draw: There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. If you flop a flush draw, there will be two in your hand and two on the board, leaving a total of 9 cards in the deck which will give you a flush
Open Ended Straight Draw: In the hand where we held 7d8d above we had an open-ended straight draw where any Jack or six made our straight. As mentioned there are 4 cards of each rank in the deck for a total of 8 outs. Note that a flush draw is slightly stronger than an open ended straight draw.
Gutshot Straight Draw: If we held JsQs on a board of 8d9h2d then we have a gutshot straight draw, where only a ten will give us a straight. As we know, there are four tens in the deck so we have a total of four outs.
Double-Gutshot Straight Draw: Double gutshots are sometimes a little more difficult to recognise. An example would be holding 9s8s on a 5d7dJh board. In this case a six or a ten gives us a straight meaning that, as with the open-ended straight draw, we have eight outs.
Counting Outs in More Complicated Situations
There are a couple of situations in poker where counting outs isn’t so straightforward:
A Set vs. a Flush: If you’re unlucky enough to get all in on the flop with a set against an opponent that has flopped a flush, you still have a pretty good chance at winning. Let’s say you hold 3s3d on a 3h5hAh board and your opponent has KhQh. You can still overtake him by making a full house or quads. In this situation you are looking to hit the lone three in the deck or hoping that that the Ace or the five pair. There are three of each left in the deck giving you a total of 7 outs.
Overcards: Sometimes you’ll be faced with a situation where even making a pair will win you the hand. Say you hold Ah3h on a Th5h8s board and your opponent goes all-in after re-raising you pre-flop, and you have a strong suspicion that he has an over pair. In this case AA is unlikely so you think he has JJ-KK most of the time. In this situation, as well as your flush outs, even hitting and Ace will win you the hand, so you can add the three Aces remaining in the deck to your outs. Of course, occasionally he will have AA, or a hand like TT and your Ace outs won’t be good. This is where counting outs gets a little more tricky. To account for these times you might just take one or two of the Aces as clean outs to account for the times where hitting an Ace isn’t going to win you the hand.
The Application of Outs to Your Play
Now that you know how to calculate how many outs you have in a hand, how can you use this information to benefit you? There is a simple rule for converting outs into your percentage chance of winning the hand.
On the flop, multiply the number of outs you have by 4.
On the turn, multiply the number of outs you have by 2.
So taking an example, if you have an open-ended straight draw which you know gives you eight outs, then on the flop you have a 4 x 8 = 32% chance of winning the hand. If you miss, then on the turn you have a 16% chance of winning the hand. You can then apply this information to the size of the pot and make your decision based on the information available to you. If your opponent bets all-in for $100 in a pot of $100 and you have an open ended straight draw, you can combine the pots odds you are getting with your chances of winning the hand. In this case, you’re being offered 2/1 meaning you need to win the hand 33% of the time to break even, but your draw only has a 32% chance of hitting, so making this call will be a marginal loser of money in the long run. If the pot is smaller and your opponent has bet less, then you can factor in the money you might win on future streets into your decision on whether or not to continue with your draw.
Calculating your outs in Texas Hold’em
What are the chances? How do you calculate your chances of winning with one card to come?
In a community card poker game like Texas Hold’em, you’ll occasionally find yourself in a situation where the betting has completed, but not all the cards are dealt. The players’ hole cards are turned over and everyone can see what each person needs to draw on the river to win the pot. So how do you work out the chances for each hand?
The first step is to count how many known cards there are and how many unknown (unseen) cards there are.
- Known cards are your own hand, the community cards, plus any other exposed cards revealed for any reason — for instance, if the betting is complete and the cards are “on their backs”
- Unknown cards are the rest of the deck, and any folded cards.
Other players’ folded cards are unknown because they were randomly dealt and you haven’t seen them. You might be able to make an educated guess, given how those players were betting.
The number of known cards plus unknown cards is always 52 if you’re playing with a standard deck, while a Royal Hold’em hand calculation will revolve around a 20-card deck.
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The cards in that pool of unknown cards that’ll win the hand for you are your outs.
Let’s look at a common situation:
The above four cards have been revealed. You’re all-in with a 3 of Clubs and 4 of Clubs, and you see that your opponent is currently winning with a 7 of Hearts and 7 of Diamonds.
You can see eight cards. Of the 44 unknown cards, nine are clubs and three others are 2s (you can’t count the 2 of clubs twice, and you already counted it with the clubs), so you have 12 outs to win. Even though many of the cards left don’t improve your opponent’s holding or change the outcome, all the rest are considered to be outs for your opponent because they don’t help your hand.
If you had two higher clubs than your opponent’s pair of 7s, such as the Queen and the 9, then you’d have nine clubs, three non-club Jacks, PLUS the three Queens and three 9s which make a pair for you. That comes to a total of 18 outs, and in a situation where there are only two players, that means it’s an 18 out of 44 chance to win, which is almost 41%
Interestingly, the hand that is currently winning is sometimes not the favorite to win the hand — especially when three or more hands are involved in the race.
For example, on the above board, where three players are all-in with the following holdings:
- A) J of Clubs, 10 of Clubs
- B) 9 of Spades, 5 of Spades
- C) Ace of Diamonds, 4 of Diamonds
There are 42 unknown cards, regardless of how many players were dealt in and have folded.
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- A) wins with any one of: nine clubs, two Queens, two Jacks, two 10s, and two 7s, making 17 outs (40.5%).
- B) wins with any one of: nine spades, two remaining 9s, and the two remaining 5s that are not clubs, making 13 outs (31%).
- C) has the remaining cards that don’t improve an opponent, which is just 12 of them, for 28.6% and the lowest chance to win of the three!